{"F": {"ts_code": "002215.SZ", "name": "诺普信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "其他种植业", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.62, "pe_ttm": 13.9068, "pb": 2.3261, "dv_ttm": 2.8259, "total_mv": 1066522.8456, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.3, 26.9, 27.1, 29.5, 37.7, 37.4], "rev_series": [41.3, 45.0, 42.7, 41.2, 52.9, 57.8], "np_series": [1.7, 3.1, 3.3, 2.4, 5.8, 6.5], "roe_series": [7.2, 11.5, 9.9, 6.4, 15.4, 16.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 60.7, "np_ttm": 7.7, "ocf_ttm": 13.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 3.0, "ocf_yield": 12.3, "gm_median": 29.5, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": 1.8, "npm_median": 7.7, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.7, "fix_assets": 27.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 2.33, "capex_dep": 1.84, "interest_debt": 58.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 60.5, "debt_mv": 54.8, "payout": 59.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.7, "np_cagr3": 25.6, "rev_yoy": 7.8, "np_yoy": 18.0, "np_vol": 63.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 64.0, "earn_yield": 7.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["生鲜消费类", 52.0], ["杀虫剂", 16.0], ["杀菌剂", 15.0], ["植物营养", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.7, "ret_prev2_year": 41.8, "ret_ytd": 3.2, "ret_pivot": 48.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.2, "ret_60": 21.9, "ret_120": -2.9, "ret_250": -15.3, "mdd_250": -36.9, "vol_250": 40.1, "pos_52w": 81.4}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 53, "hard": 36, "bondness": 57}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 13.9 倍、股息率 2.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.0%(经营现金流/市值 12.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 1.84 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.9 倍 粗算,约 64%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 22% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "诺普信:PE 比行业中位低 57.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.9个百分点。"]}}