{"F": {"ts_code": "002212.SZ", "name": "天融信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080201", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.65, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.8452, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 784336.8435, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.4, 59.4, 59.7, 60.2, 61.0, 66.3], "rev_series": [57.0, 33.5, 35.4, 31.2, 28.2, 25.7], "np_series": [4.0, 2.3, 2.1, -3.7, 0.8, 0.7], "roe_series": [4.3, 2.4, 2.1, -3.9, 0.9, 0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.9, "np_ttm": -1.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -3.1, "fcf_yield": -4.0, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 60.2, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 22.4, "npm_median": 3.0, "roe_median": 0.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.3, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 37.7, "pb_calc": 0.85, "capex_dep": 7.6, "interest_debt": 4.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 15.6, "debt_mv": 6.2, "payout": 51.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -10.1, "np_cagr3": -28.7, "rev_yoy": -34.0, "np_yoy": -321.8, "np_vol": 131.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 66.5, "fwd_pe2": 50.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 2.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["网络安全产品", 25.0], ["网络安全(产品)", 25.0], ["智算云产品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.1, "ret_prev2_year": -34.0, "ret_ytd": -26.7, "ret_pivot": 48.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": 10.3, "ret_120": -21.4, "ret_250": -35.0, "mdd_250": -59.4, "vol_250": 50.3, "pos_52w": 51.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 75, "hard": 5, "bondness": 49}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 16%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 60.2%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.0%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 60.2%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 22.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 7.60 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 10% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "天融信:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}