{"F": {"ts_code": "002209.SZ", "name": "达意隆", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "印刷包装机械", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080130", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.46, "pe_ttm": 18.3387, "pb": 2.9166, "dv_ttm": 0.5944, "total_mv": 275297.5146, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.2, 17.9, 21.9, 24.1, 25.9, 26.4], "rev_series": [9.3, 10.6, 11.5, 12.8, 15.2, 18.5], "np_series": [0.2, -0.5, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 1.2], "roe_series": [2.9, -8.6, 3.9, 7.6, 10.3, 15.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.1, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 6.4, "ocf_yield": 13.7, "gm_median": 24.1, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.3, "fix_assets": 5.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.92, "capex_dep": 5.75, "interest_debt": 4.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 75.5, "debt_mv": 14.6, "payout": 13.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 17.2, "np_cagr3": 75.9, "rev_yoy": 17.0, "np_yoy": 31.2, "np_vol": 195.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["液体包装机械及自动化设备", 85.0], ["代理加工", 7.0], ["代加工", 7.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 75.3, "ret_prev2_year": -15.6, "ret_ytd": -16.1, "ret_pivot": 78.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 22.6, "ret_60": 20.5, "ret_120": -10.7, "ret_250": -21.7, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 43.0, "pos_52w": 78.0}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 48, "hard": 23, "bondness": 16}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 18.3 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.1%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%(经营现金流/市值 13.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.1%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 5.75 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.3 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 23% / 20% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "达意隆:PE 比行业中位低 24.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点。"]}}