{"F": {"ts_code": "002207.SZ", "name": "*ST准油", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油服工程", "sw3": "油田服务", "ind": "油服工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.9, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 179.866, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 154612.686, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.6, -7.9, -12.8, 2.8, 3.1, -1.9], "rev_series": [2.0, 1.9, 2.0, 2.7, 3.4, 3.0], "np_series": [-0.1, 0.1, -0.1, -0.2, -0.2, -0.4], "roe_series": [-7.6, 5.1, -7.4, -19.7, -20.9, -85.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.3, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": -1.9, "gm_std": 6.2, "gm_stab": 4.27, "gm_chg_2022": -19.4, "npm_median": -5.0, "roe_median": -19.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 33.4, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 179.87, "capex_dep": 0.18, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 97.2, "debt_mv": 10.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 14.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 28.8, "np_yoy": 1.3, "np_vol": 146.4, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工业（含石油技术、油田管理）", 38.0], ["工业(含石油技术、油田管理)", 38.0], ["施工产品", 6.0], ["施工", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.1, "ret_prev2_year": -29.4, "ret_ytd": -20.3, "ret_pivot": 19.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.2, "ret_60": -22.9, "ret_120": -47.2, "ret_250": -27.7, "mdd_250": -68.2, "vol_250": 68.1, "pos_52w": 39.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 53, "bondness": 8}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 97%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 33%、毛利率 -1.9% 两条都占,但所在行业(石油石化)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -1.9%,稳定度 427%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -19.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 0.18 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -68%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 39%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -23% / -47%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油服工程」14 家中位:PE 62.0 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 35%。", "*ST准油:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.6个百分点。"]}}