{"F": {"ts_code": "002206.SZ", "name": "海利得", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "涤纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080123", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.27, "pe_ttm": 11.9217, "pb": 1.5249, "dv_ttm": 3.7723, "total_mv": 612388.3344, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.7, 21.4, 16.6, 16.2, 16.0, 19.4], "rev_series": [35.1, 50.7, 55.1, 56.2, 59.0, 58.3], "np_series": [2.5, 5.7, 3.3, 3.5, 4.1, 5.1], "roe_series": [8.8, 18.7, 9.8, 9.7, 10.8, 13.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 55.4, "np_ttm": 5.1, "ocf_ttm": 6.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 4.2, "ocf_yield": 10.6, "gm_median": 16.6, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 7.0, "roe_median": 10.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.3, "fix_assets": 28.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.52, "capex_dep": 1.01, "interest_debt": 23.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 46.6, "debt_mv": 38.7, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.9, "np_cagr3": 15.7, "rev_yoy": -10.0, "np_yoy": -0.2, "np_vol": 56.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 58.0, "earn_yield": 8.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 11.0, "fwd_pe2": 10.3, "fwd_g1": 9.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.83, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["涤纶工业长丝", 23.0], ["轮胎帘子布", 9.0], ["帘子布", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.5, "ret_prev2_year": -12.9, "ret_ytd": -6.7, "ret_pivot": 65.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": 2.1, "ret_120": -21.1, "ret_250": -15.4, "mdd_250": -29.2, "vol_250": 33.2, "pos_52w": 73.2}, "S": {"duration": 26, "pricing": 43, "hard": 61, "bondness": 65}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.2%(经营现金流/市值 10.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.01 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.9 倍 粗算,约 58%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 2% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "海利得:PE 比行业中位低 20.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.3个百分点。"]}}