{"F": {"ts_code": "002204.SZ", "name": "大连重工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.17, "pe_ttm": 15.5622, "pb": 1.2439, "dv_ttm": 1.8191, "total_mv": 998518.29, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.7, 21.5, 20.1, 20.6, 16.9, 18.4], "rev_series": [81.6, 91.1, 103.6, 120.0, 142.8, 155.2], "np_series": [0.6, 1.2, 2.9, 3.6, 5.0, 5.8], "roe_series": [0.9, 1.8, 4.4, 5.3, 7.0, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 160.9, "np_ttm": 6.4, "ocf_ttm": 14.6, "fcf_ttm": 12.6, "fcf_yield": 12.7, "ocf_yield": 14.6, "gm_median": 20.1, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 3.0, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.9, "fix_assets": 46.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.24, "capex_dep": 0.66, "interest_debt": 15.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 71.1, "debt_mv": 15.2, "payout": 19.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.4, "np_cagr3": 26.5, "rev_yoy": 7.6, "np_yoy": 18.8, "np_vol": 58.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 11.0, "fwd_pe2": 9.8, "fwd_g1": 41.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 0.85, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["物料搬运设备板块", 20.0], ["物料搬运设备", 20.0], ["新能源设备板块", 12.0], ["新能源设备", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.3, "ret_prev2_year": 10.1, "ret_ytd": -31.6, "ret_pivot": 32.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.4, "ret_60": -5.6, "ret_120": -27.9, "ret_250": -21.1, "mdd_250": -37.3, "vol_250": 32.1, "pos_52w": 64.3}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 47, "hard": 27, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 15.6 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.1%、固定资产占比 17%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.7%(经营现金流/市值 14.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 0.66 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.6 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -6% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "大连重工:PE 比行业中位低 26.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}