{"F": {"ts_code": "002203.SZ", "name": "海亮股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.84, "pe_ttm": 49.4955, "pb": 2.557, "dv_ttm": 1.1676, "total_mv": 4317666.7968, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.6, 4.1, 4.0, 3.9, 3.2, 3.7], "rev_series": [464.1, 633.1, 738.7, 755.9, 873.9, 832.0], "np_series": [6.8, 11.1, 12.1, 11.2, 7.0, 9.4], "roe_series": [7.0, 10.6, 10.2, 8.3, 4.9, 6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 876.3, "np_ttm": 8.7, "ocf_ttm": -77.9, "fcf_ttm": -93.0, "fcf_yield": -21.5, "ocf_yield": -18.0, "gm_median": 3.9, "gm_std": 0.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.4, "npm_median": 1.5, "roe_median": 8.3, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 20.9, "fix_assets": 113.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 2.56, "capex_dep": 1.67, "interest_debt": 299.8, "debt_ebitda": 9.8, "debt_ratio": 63.9, "debt_mv": 69.4, "payout": 48.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.0, "np_cagr3": -7.9, "rev_yoy": 9.9, "np_yoy": -10.0, "np_vol": 34.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 22.9, "fwd_pe2": 15.3, "fwd_g1": 116.0, "fwd_g2": 50.0, "peg": 0.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["铜管", 32.0], ["原材料等", 5.0], ["其他业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.2, "ret_prev2_year": -2.2, "ret_ytd": 50.3, "ret_pivot": 144.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.4, "ret_60": -11.1, "ret_120": 33.0, "ret_250": 54.0, "mdd_250": -36.3, "vol_250": 55.9, "pos_52w": 72.0}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 70, "hard": 33, "bondness": 55}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 49.5 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 3.9%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 9.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 3.9%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -21.5%(经营现金流/市值 -18.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 1.67 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.5 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 54%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -11% / 33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "海亮股份:PE 比行业中位高 29.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点。"]}}