{"F": {"ts_code": "002201.SZ", "name": "九鼎新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "玻璃玻纤", "sw3": "玻纤制造", "ind": "玻璃玻纤", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071226", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.27, "pe_ttm": 68.0861, "pb": 5.0502, "dv_ttm": 0.2697, "total_mv": 604066.7574, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.3, 23.0, 23.0, 24.8, 25.9, 26.6], "rev_series": [16.7, 15.0, 14.4, 17.2, 14.2, 18.0], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.9], "roe_series": [3.6, 4.1, 3.5, 3.7, 2.7, 8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.9, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 4.0, "gm_median": 24.8, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 2.7, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.8, "fix_assets": 9.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.05, "capex_dep": 0.15, "interest_debt": 6.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 66.4, "debt_mv": 10.0, "payout": 17.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.6, "np_cagr3": 35.7, "rev_yoy": 13.8, "np_yoy": -4.2, "np_vol": 85.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["玻璃纤维及制品", 26.0], ["玻璃钢制品", 23.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 121.2, "ret_prev2_year": -28.3, "ret_ytd": -18.6, "ret_pivot": 135.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.3, "ret_60": -17.5, "ret_120": -20.9, "ret_250": 9.5, "mdd_250": -56.6, "vol_250": 64.3, "pos_52w": 57.0}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 55, "hard": 43, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 68.1 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 4.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.15 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.1 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -18% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「玻璃玻纤」16 家中位:PE 68.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 22.1% / 固定资产占比 53% / 分红率 37%。", "九鼎新材:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 26.4个百分点。"]}}