{"F": {"ts_code": "002197.SZ", "name": "证通电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.07, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.4353, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 434354.5703, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.1, 33.6, 22.1, 27.0, 20.6, 15.1], "rev_series": [13.3, 12.5, 12.2, 13.0, 9.3, 9.9], "np_series": [0.2, 0.4, -5.4, -0.7, -3.8, -3.8], "roe_series": [0.8, 1.1, -19.3, -2.9, -16.3, -19.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.7, "np_ttm": -3.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 5.7, "gm_median": 22.1, "gm_std": 6.2, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -10.0, "npm_median": -37.1, "roe_median": -16.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.5, "fix_assets": 30.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.44, "capex_dep": 1.26, "interest_debt": 29.4, "debt_ebitda": 22.0, "debt_ratio": 67.0, "debt_mv": 67.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -6.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 18.4, "np_yoy": 116.1, "np_vol": 731.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["IDC及云计算业务", 23.0], ["IDC业务", 23.0], ["电话E-POS", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 150.5, "ret_prev2_year": -61.1, "ret_ytd": -30.1, "ret_pivot": 118.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": 17.1, "ret_120": -15.1, "ret_250": -16.5, "mdd_250": -51.4, "vol_250": 51.6, "pos_52w": 63.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 87, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 67%,有息负债 29 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.1%,稳定度 72%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 5.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.1%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 1.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 17% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "证通电子:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 42.8个百分点。"]}}