{"F": {"ts_code": "002196.SZ", "name": "方正电机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电机Ⅱ", "sw3": "电机Ⅲ", "ind": "电机Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071212", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.88, "pe_ttm": 102.6023, "pb": 3.7512, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 539508.6272, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.7, 8.8, 11.7, 15.8, 13.7, 13.0], "rev_series": [11.3, 18.9, 23.3, 25.0, 24.7, 29.1], "np_series": [-6.6, 0.2, -2.3, 1.0, -0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [-38.1, 2.0, -17.3, 7.5, -2.0, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.7, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -4.6, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 13.0, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": 0.2, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.2, "fix_assets": 17.5, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 3.75, "capex_dep": 3.56, "interest_debt": 14.2, "debt_ebitda": 5.9, "debt_ratio": 71.9, "debt_mv": 26.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 7.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 35.8, "np_yoy": 438.7, "np_vol": 407.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["驱动电机和汽车电子", 59.0], ["智能控制器", 25.0], ["微特电机", 14.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 196.1, "ret_prev2_year": -25.3, "ret_ytd": -31.4, "ret_pivot": 150.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": -11.8, "ret_120": -24.2, "ret_250": 16.4, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 61.3, "pos_52w": 58.2}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 44, "hard": 55, "bondness": 27}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 3.56 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 102.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -12% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电机Ⅱ」28 家中位:PE 46.1 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 38%。", "方正电机:PE 比行业中位高 56.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.4个百分点。"]}}