{"F": {"ts_code": "002195.SZ", "name": "岩山科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071212", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.37, "pe_ttm": 426.403, "pb": 3.6467, "dv_ttm": 0.0314, "total_mv": 3609587.7636, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.2, 55.6, 59.7, 53.7, 33.5, 28.7], "rev_series": [12.3, 9.3, 6.7, 5.7, 6.6, 6.5], "np_series": [-9.1, 4.0, 2.1, 3.3, 0.3, 0.9], "roe_series": [-9.5, 4.3, 2.3, 3.5, 0.3, 0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 53.7, "gm_std": 12.6, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": 9.5, "npm_median": 31.8, "roe_median": 2.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.4, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 8.9, "pb_calc": 3.65, "capex_dep": 0.84, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 2.7, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 14.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -0.7, "np_cagr3": -24.2, "rev_yoy": 8.0, "np_yoy": -11.3, "np_vol": 105.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 318.5, "fwd_pe2": 318.5, "fwd_g1": 34.0, "fwd_g2": 0.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["互联网信息服务", 32.0], ["互联网业务", 32.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 78.6, "ret_prev2_year": 29.8, "ret_ytd": -10.1, "ret_pivot": 179.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.1, "ret_60": -6.0, "ret_120": -39.0, "ret_250": -0.6, "mdd_250": -56.6, "vol_250": 56.8, "pos_52w": 48.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 65, "hard": 4, "bondness": 28}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 426.4 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 2%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 318.5 倍,次年 318.5 倍,PEG —。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 53.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 53.7%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 0.84 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 426.4 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -6% / -39%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "岩山科技:PE 比行业中位高 342.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 25.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点。"]}}