{"F": {"ts_code": "002193.SZ", "name": "ST如意", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071207", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.09, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.4769, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 133213.2404, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.9, 28.5, 16.4, 7.9, 13.0, 11.8], "rev_series": [7.9, 6.9, 5.9, 3.8, 4.5, 3.6], "np_series": [0.1, 0.0, -8.3, -6.2, -5.8, -3.7], "roe_series": [0.2, 0.0, -36.4, -40.1, -60.4, -76.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.7, "np_ttm": -3.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 13.0, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.46, "gm_chg_2022": -10.5, "npm_median": -128.6, "roe_median": -40.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.7, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.48, "capex_dep": 0.0, "interest_debt": 11.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 91.6, "debt_mv": 86.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -15.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.4, "np_yoy": 1.8, "np_vol": 33497.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["服装销售", 39.0], ["服装", 39.0], ["面料", 9.0], ["精纺呢绒", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.0, "ret_prev2_year": -14.5, "ret_ytd": -4.3, "ret_pivot": 28.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.9, "ret_60": 16.7, "ret_120": -19.3, "ret_250": -18.6, "mdd_250": -51.2, "vol_250": 50.4, "pos_52w": 70.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 26, "hard": 57, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.5 个百分点;资产负债率 92%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%,稳定度 46%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%,稳定度 46%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / 17% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "ST如意:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 28.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.6个百分点。"]}}