{"F": {"ts_code": "002191.SZ", "name": "劲嘉股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.64, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.8258, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 514688.2832, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.8, 32.2, 27.8, 25.9, 27.0, 18.1], "rev_series": [41.9, 50.7, 51.9, 39.5, 28.6, 29.9], "np_series": [8.2, 10.2, 2.0, 1.2, 0.7, -3.5], "roe_series": [11.5, 13.4, 2.6, 1.6, 1.1, -5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.4, "np_ttm": -4.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 27.0, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -7.0, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.5, "fix_assets": 13.7, "goodwill_ratio": 4.8, "pb_calc": 0.83, "capex_dep": 0.37, "interest_debt": 2.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 18.9, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": 375.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -16.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 28.4, "np_yoy": -60.5, "np_vol": 221.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["新型烟草制品", 27.0], ["新型烟草", 27.0], ["精品纸包装", 20.0], ["镭射材料及烟膜", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.2, "ret_prev2_year": -17.2, "ret_ytd": -13.1, "ret_pivot": 8.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": -6.2, "ret_120": -7.6, "ret_250": -20.7, "mdd_250": -26.9, "vol_250": 31.2, "pos_52w": 76.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 28, "bondness": 62}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 19%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.37 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -6% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "劲嘉股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.3个百分点。"]}}