{"F": {"ts_code": "002189.SZ", "name": "中光学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.84, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 12.6702, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 518219.4112, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.2, 13.6, 6.0, 5.8, 9.9, 5.6], "rev_series": [33.3, 41.3, 32.9, 21.7, 17.9, 15.0], "np_series": [1.5, 1.5, -1.9, -2.5, -3.7, -2.3], "roe_series": [10.4, 9.6, -12.6, -20.3, -40.9, -37.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.5, "np_ttm": -1.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 6.0, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.48, "gm_chg_2022": -8.2, "npm_median": -13.3, "roe_median": -20.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.8, "fix_assets": 6.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 12.67, "capex_dep": 0.24, "interest_debt": 10.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 80.1, "debt_mv": 19.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -23.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.7, "np_yoy": 40.0, "np_vol": 91.3, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["光学元组件", 20.0], ["光电防务及要地监控", 12.0], ["光电防务与要地监控", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.2, "ret_prev2_year": -11.7, "ret_ytd": -14.1, "ret_pivot": 24.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.3, "ret_60": -2.3, "ret_120": -5.6, "ret_250": -27.9, "mdd_250": -38.7, "vol_250": 39.6, "pos_52w": 73.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 24, "hard": 41, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 80%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 6.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.0%,稳定度 48%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.24 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -2% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "中光学:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 33.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.7个百分点。"]}}