{"F": {"ts_code": "002188.SZ", "name": "中天服务", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产服务", "sw3": "物业管理", "ind": "房地产服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.58, "pe_ttm": 65.0415, "pb": 4.9475, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 182523.9762, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.2, 34.3, 29.2, 27.9, 22.5, 21.2], "rev_series": [0.1, 2.7, 3.1, 3.4, 3.6, 4.0], "np_series": [-1.1, 1.5, 0.6, 0.2, 0.1, 0.3], "roe_series": [null, null, 74.9, 16.5, 3.3, 9.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.1, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 27.9, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 13.0, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.7, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.95, "capex_dep": 7.73, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 39.1, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 9.5, "np_cagr3": -19.6, "rev_yoy": 6.5, "np_yoy": -21.6, "np_vol": 179.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["物业管理及配套服务", 31.0], ["物业管理及综合配套服务", 31.0], ["其他服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.8, "ret_prev2_year": -31.5, "ret_ytd": -8.2, "ret_pivot": 36.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.9, "ret_60": 0.9, "ret_120": -21.0, "ret_250": -3.5, "mdd_250": -42.7, "vol_250": 46.3, "pos_52w": 74.7}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 54, "hard": 1, "bondness": 12}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 65.0 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%、固定资产占比 1%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 13.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 7.73 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 65.0 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 1% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产服务」12 家中位:PE 38.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 14.2% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 37%。", "中天服务:PE 比行业中位高 27.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点。"]}}