{"F": {"ts_code": "002185.SZ", "name": "华天科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "集成电路封测", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.57, "pe_ttm": 39.9232, "pb": 2.723, "dv_ttm": 0.1412, "total_mv": 5179762.0503, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.7, 24.6, 16.8, 8.9, 12.1, 13.3], "rev_series": [83.8, 121.0, 119.1, 113.0, 144.6, 172.1], "np_series": [7.0, 14.2, 7.5, 2.3, 6.2, 7.1], "roe_series": [8.6, 12.0, 4.9, 1.4, 3.8, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 199.4, "np_ttm": 13.0, "ocf_ttm": 29.0, "fcf_ttm": -46.1, "fcf_yield": -8.9, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 13.3, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.6, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 4.7, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.7, "fix_assets": 257.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 2.72, "capex_dep": 2.45, "interest_debt": 167.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 51.5, "debt_mv": 32.3, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.1, "np_cagr3": -2.0, "rev_yoy": 35.1, "np_yoy": 259.2, "np_vol": 91.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 48.7, "fwd_pe2": 40.6, "fwd_g1": -18.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 2.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["集成电路产品", 50.0], ["集成电路", 50.0], ["LED", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.0, "ret_prev2_year": 37.0, "ret_ytd": 42.2, "ret_pivot": 112.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.4, "ret_60": -7.0, "ret_120": 14.3, "ret_250": 36.8, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 60.0, "pos_52w": 60.6}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 32, "hard": 88, "bondness": 29}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 55%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 55%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.3%,稳定度 60%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.3%,稳定度 60%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 55%,资本开支/折旧 2.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.9 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 37%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -7% / 14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "华天科技:PE 比行业中位低 41.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 21.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 43.3个百分点。"]}}