{"F": {"ts_code": "002182.SZ", "name": "宝武镁业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.0, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.2627, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1190149.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.8, 14.0, 16.1, 13.4, 11.7, 10.6], "rev_series": [59.5, 81.2, 91.0, 76.5, 89.8, 99.1], "np_series": [2.4, 4.9, 6.1, 3.1, 1.6, -0.2], "roe_series": [8.9, 15.9, 16.7, 6.7, 3.0, -0.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 101.7, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": -9.3, "fcf_yield": -7.8, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 13.4, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 3.2, "npm_median": 4.7, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 43.0, "fix_assets": 64.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.26, "capex_dep": 2.26, "interest_debt": 72.0, "debt_ebitda": 8.4, "debt_ratio": 59.0, "debt_mv": 60.5, "payout": 29.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.9, "np_yoy": -128.6, "np_vol": 73.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 67.9, "fwd_pe2": 27.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 149.0, "peg": 0.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["铝合金深加工产品", 15.0], ["铝合金挤压产品", 15.0], ["镁合金产品", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.2, "ret_prev2_year": -19.2, "ret_ytd": -21.6, "ret_pivot": 35.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.5, "ret_60": -5.9, "ret_120": -37.8, "ret_250": -16.8, "mdd_250": -52.3, "vol_250": 48.7, "pos_52w": 52.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 69, "bondness": 42}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 59%,有息负债 72 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 43%、毛利率 13.4% 两条都占,但所在行业(有色金属)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 2.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -6% / -38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "宝武镁业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.3个百分点。"]}}