{"F": {"ts_code": "002181.SZ", "name": "粤传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.5, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.6724, "dv_ttm": 0.6632, "total_mv": 1103005.29, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.0, 34.6, 35.2, 27.2, 27.2, 29.1], "rev_series": [5.1, 5.5, 5.5, 5.6, 6.0, 5.9], "np_series": [3.1, 0.9, 0.4, 0.1, 0.3, 0.9], "roe_series": [7.6, 2.1, 0.9, 0.2, 0.7, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.9, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 29.1, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 7.1, "roe_median": 0.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.7, "fix_assets": 4.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.67, "capex_dep": 1.06, "interest_debt": 4.2, "debt_ebitda": 9.4, "debt_ratio": 17.2, "debt_mv": 3.8, "payout": 263.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.8, "np_cagr3": 33.7, "rev_yoy": -1.2, "np_yoy": -132.7, "np_vol": 148.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["数字营销及会展活动", 9.0], ["数字营销及会展服务", 9.0], ["报刊广告及发行", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.2, "ret_prev2_year": 24.1, "ret_ytd": 11.0, "ret_pivot": 201.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": -34.1, "ret_120": -9.5, "ret_250": 30.9, "mdd_250": -61.5, "vol_250": 71.3, "pos_52w": 48.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 16, "bondness": 71}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 17%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.06 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 31%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -34% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "粤传媒:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}