{"F": {"ts_code": "002172.SZ", "name": "澳洋健康", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医院", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070921", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.21, "pe_ttm": 95.0949, "pb": 16.111, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 322373.2983, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [0.5, 7.5, 13.9, 13.5, 13.4, 13.7], "rev_series": [30.8, 30.3, 20.2, 21.7, 20.1, 18.1], "np_series": [-4.6, -10.4, -0.2, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [-38.8, -204.6, -28.7, 72.0, 35.5, 26.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 13.5, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 13.4, "npm_median": 2.1, "roe_median": 26.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.9, "fix_assets": 7.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 16.11, "capex_dep": 0.46, "interest_debt": 9.3, "debt_ebitda": 6.6, "debt_ratio": 89.8, "debt_mv": 28.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -3.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.9, "np_yoy": -23.4, "np_vol": 187.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["医疗服务", 53.0], ["医药物流", 47.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.8, "ret_prev2_year": -17.4, "ret_ytd": 6.0, "ret_pivot": 74.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 28.0, "ret_60": 35.8, "ret_120": -1.4, "ret_250": -1.4, "mdd_250": -40.4, "vol_250": 47.0, "pos_52w": 84.4}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 47, "hard": 65, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 13.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 13.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 0.46 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 95.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 28% / 36% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "澳洋健康:PE 比行业中位高 22.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 27.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.0个百分点。"]}}