{"F": {"ts_code": "002171.SZ", "name": "楚江新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070921", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.3, "pe_ttm": 38.3473, "pb": 1.8641, "dv_ttm": 0.7767, "total_mv": 1671626.037, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.0, 6.1, 3.9, 3.8, 3.0, 3.3], "rev_series": [229.7, 373.5, 406.0, 463.1, 537.5, 605.8], "np_series": [2.7, 5.7, 1.3, 5.3, 2.3, 3.8], "roe_series": [4.9, 9.5, 2.2, 8.4, 3.3, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 719.1, "np_ttm": 4.4, "ocf_ttm": -15.6, "fcf_ttm": -22.0, "fcf_yield": -13.2, "ocf_yield": -9.3, "gm_median": 3.8, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 19.2, "fix_assets": 47.4, "goodwill_ratio": 4.9, "pb_calc": 1.86, "capex_dep": 1.83, "interest_debt": 114.9, "debt_ebitda": 9.8, "debt_ratio": 61.2, "debt_mv": 68.8, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.3, "np_cagr3": 42.1, "rev_yoy": 39.4, "np_yoy": 21.0, "np_vol": 134.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["铜基材料", 49.0], ["高端装备、碳纤维复合材料", 0.0], ["钢基材料", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 62.3, "ret_prev2_year": 13.1, "ret_ytd": -21.9, "ret_pivot": 89.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.6, "ret_60": -20.0, "ret_120": -16.4, "ret_250": 1.2, "mdd_250": -46.4, "vol_250": 51.0, "pos_52w": 62.7}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 70, "hard": 31, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 38.3 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 3.8%、固定资产占比 19%、有息负债/EBITDA 9.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 3.8%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.2%(经营现金流/市值 -9.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.8%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.83 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.3 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -20% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "楚江新材:PE 比行业中位高 17.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点。"]}}