{"F": {"ts_code": "002170.SZ", "name": "芭田股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "复合肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070919", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.73, "pe_ttm": 10.7693, "pb": 2.9737, "dv_ttm": 6.2101, "total_mv": 1139957.4463, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.3, 15.9, 15.2, 23.0, 27.7, 35.6], "rev_series": [21.3, 24.9, 28.6, 32.4, 33.1, 50.6], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 1.2, 2.6, 4.1, 9.1], "roe_series": [4.0, 4.0, 5.7, 11.2, 14.5, 26.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 51.5, "np_ttm": 10.6, "ocf_ttm": 13.9, "fcf_ttm": 12.6, "fcf_yield": 11.1, "ocf_yield": 12.2, "gm_median": 23.0, "gm_std": 7.6, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.0, "fix_assets": 23.3, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 2.97, "capex_dep": 0.37, "interest_debt": 8.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 35.6, "debt_mv": 7.2, "payout": 61.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 21.0, "np_cagr3": 95.9, "rev_yoy": 3.8, "np_yoy": 32.2, "np_vol": 43.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 54.0, "earn_yield": 9.3, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 8.9, "fwd_pe2": 7.6, "fwd_g1": 21.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 0.52, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["复混(合)肥系列产品", 20.0], ["复合肥系列", 20.0], ["磷矿石", 19.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.4, "ret_prev2_year": 75.9, "ret_ytd": 1.0, "ret_pivot": 144.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.5, "ret_60": 5.9, "ret_120": -16.2, "ret_250": 15.8, "mdd_250": -27.4, "vol_250": 39.6, "pos_52w": 82.0}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 39, "hard": 62, "bondness": 53}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 61%、股息率 6.2%、营收 3 年复合 21.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 67%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.1%(经营现金流/市值 12.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.37 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.8 倍 粗算,约 54%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 6% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "芭田股份:PE 比行业中位低 10.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点。"]}}