{"F": {"ts_code": "002169.SZ", "name": "智光电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070919", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.52, "pe_ttm": 41.7881, "pb": 3.4941, "dv_ttm": 0.639, "total_mv": 979945.5332, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.3, 9.2, 8.3, 17.3, 12.9, 16.2], "rev_series": [21.4, 18.9, 23.5, 27.3, 26.0, 38.2], "np_series": [2.4, 3.4, 0.4, -1.6, -3.3, 1.4], "roe_series": [8.2, 10.7, 1.3, -4.9, -11.3, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.5, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": -3.3, "fcf_ttm": -4.8, "fcf_yield": -4.9, "ocf_yield": -3.4, "gm_median": 12.9, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -11.0, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.3, "fix_assets": 34.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.49, "capex_dep": 0.92, "interest_debt": 45.4, "debt_ebitda": 10.7, "debt_ratio": 71.1, "debt_mv": 46.4, "payout": 45.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.6, "np_cagr3": 47.4, "rev_yoy": 38.1, "np_yoy": 179.5, "np_vol": 207.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["数字能源技术及产品", 87.0], ["综合能源服务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 91.8, "ret_prev2_year": -9.5, "ret_ytd": 9.0, "ret_pivot": 195.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.0, "ret_60": -16.4, "ret_120": -19.0, "ret_250": 83.8, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 55.7, "pos_52w": 66.6}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 35, "hard": 50, "bondness": 37}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 10.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%,稳定度 72%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.9%(经营现金流/市值 -3.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.92 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.8 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 84%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -16% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "智光电气:PE 比行业中位低 1.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.4个百分点。"]}}