{"F": {"ts_code": "002167.SZ", "name": "东方锆业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070913", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.24, "pe_ttm": 113.5479, "pb": 6.4388, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1180602.1092, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.7, 24.2, 22.7, 13.9, 10.4, 16.8], "rev_series": [7.7, 12.9, 13.7, 14.5, 15.4, 12.4], "np_series": [-1.6, 1.5, 1.0, -0.8, 1.8, 0.5], "roe_series": [-16.5, 12.7, 7.3, -5.4, 11.2, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.9, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 2.7, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 16.8, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": 12.0, "npm_median": 6.8, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 25.8, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 6.44, "capex_dep": 1.69, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 20.0, "debt_mv": 1.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -3.1, "np_cagr3": -18.9, "rev_yoy": 7.9, "np_yoy": 176.1, "np_vol": 185.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["无机非金属锆产品", 45.0], ["无机非金属材料产品", 4.0], ["附产品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 68.3, "ret_prev2_year": 14.2, "ret_ytd": 23.4, "ret_pivot": 199.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.5, "ret_60": 10.0, "ret_120": 9.2, "ret_250": 9.9, "mdd_250": -45.4, "vol_250": 60.5, "pos_52w": 58.5}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 70, "hard": 41, "bondness": 23}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 113.5 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 16.8%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 12.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 1.69 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 113.5 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / 10% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "东方锆业:PE 比行业中位高 76.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点。"]}}