{"F": {"ts_code": "002166.SZ", "name": "莱茵生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070913", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.77, "pe_ttm": 31.0768, "pb": 1.6126, "dv_ttm": 1.4467, "total_mv": 502069.5638, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.9, 29.8, 30.8, 24.4, 29.3, 25.8], "rev_series": [7.8, 10.5, 14.0, 14.9, 17.7, 20.4], "np_series": [0.9, 1.2, 1.8, 0.8, 1.6, 1.4], "roe_series": [4.8, 6.5, 7.2, 2.7, 5.2, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.8, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 3.0, "ocf_yield": 5.9, "gm_median": 29.3, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 9.4, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.0, "fix_assets": 14.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 1.61, "capex_dep": 1.16, "interest_debt": 9.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 33.5, "debt_mv": 18.3, "payout": 51.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 13.4, "np_cagr3": -7.1, "rev_yoy": 4.4, "np_yoy": 48.4, "np_vol": 52.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 25.8, "fwd_pe2": 19.8, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.86, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["植物提取物", 33.0], ["植物提取产品", 33.0], ["其他业务产品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.9, "ret_prev2_year": -1.4, "ret_ytd": -18.9, "ret_pivot": 0.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": -8.4, "ret_120": -27.2, "ret_250": -18.8, "mdd_250": -36.6, "vol_250": 34.2, "pos_52w": 69.2}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 57, "hard": 50, "bondness": 40}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 48%,PE TTM 31.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 25.8 倍,PEG 0.86。", "自由现金流 1.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 30%(4 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.0%(经营现金流/市值 5.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 1.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.1 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -8% / -27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "莱茵生物:PE 比行业中位低 4.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点。"]}}