{"F": {"ts_code": "002165.SZ", "name": "红宝丽", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "聚氨酯", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070913", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.77, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.8649, "dv_ttm": 0.3861, "total_mv": 571304.6346, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.8, 13.1, 12.9, 19.4, 14.9, 14.3], "rev_series": [26.1, 34.3, 25.2, 26.5, 27.3, 27.9], "np_series": [1.2, 0.3, -0.8, 0.4, 0.6, 0.2], "roe_series": [7.4, 1.6, -3.8, 1.9, 2.9, 0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.8, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.7, "fcf_yield": -4.7, "ocf_yield": -3.5, "gm_median": 14.3, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -6.9, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.2, "fix_assets": 21.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.86, "capex_dep": 0.73, "interest_debt": 33.3, "debt_ebitda": 21.9, "debt_ratio": 66.4, "debt_mv": 58.3, "payout": 127.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 23.0, "np_yoy": -134.8, "np_vol": 172.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["环丙衍生品", 46.0], ["材料贸易", 4.0], ["保温材料", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 78.9, "ret_prev2_year": 3.7, "ret_ytd": 3.2, "ret_pivot": 145.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 17.4, "ret_60": -2.9, "ret_120": -39.0, "ret_250": -17.5, "mdd_250": -61.2, "vol_250": 63.3, "pos_52w": 55.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 58, "bondness": 69}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 21.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.3%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.7%(经营现金流/市值 -3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.3%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.73 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 17% / -3% / -39%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "红宝丽:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点。"]}}