{"F": {"ts_code": "002164.SZ", "name": "宁波东力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070823", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.73, "pe_ttm": 26.1235, "pb": 3.7058, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 571022.2728, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.8, 27.4, 23.8, 20.3, 20.1, 23.8], "rev_series": [12.4, 16.1, 14.7, 14.9, 14.6, 14.7], "np_series": [14.6, 3.3, 3.3, 0.4, 0.5, 2.0], "roe_series": [238.5, 42.0, 29.2, 3.1, 3.4, 13.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.1, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 23.8, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": 13.3, "roe_median": 13.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.0, "fix_assets": 11.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 3.71, "capex_dep": 3.76, "interest_debt": 4.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 46.1, "debt_mv": 7.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -0.0, "np_cagr3": -15.8, "rev_yoy": 6.2, "np_yoy": 74.2, "np_vol": 151.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["传动设备", 87.0], ["门控系统", 12.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 219.6, "ret_prev2_year": -25.8, "ret_ytd": -33.0, "ret_pivot": 177.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.2, "ret_60": -21.7, "ret_120": -15.9, "ret_250": -20.5, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 50.2, "pos_52w": 60.3}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 47, "hard": 62, "bondness": 26}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 26.1 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%、固定资产占比 39%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 3.76 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.1 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -22% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "宁波东力:PE 比行业中位低 24.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.2个百分点。"]}}