{"F": {"ts_code": "002161.SZ", "name": "远望谷", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "其他电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电子Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070821", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.98, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.5478, "dv_ttm": 0.1937, "total_mv": 516350.735, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.7, 36.0, 39.4, 41.9, 43.6, 42.1], "rev_series": [4.7, 4.9, 4.8, 6.0, 5.5, 6.0], "np_series": [-4.4, -0.7, -0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [-24.9, -4.5, -2.1, 1.9, 1.8, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.7, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 41.9, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 1.7, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.1, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 5.1, "pb_calc": 3.55, "capex_dep": 0.54, "interest_debt": 7.0, "debt_ebitda": 67.5, "debt_ratio": 41.5, "debt_mv": 13.7, "payout": 47.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 7.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -11.3, "np_yoy": -233.2, "np_vol": 81.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 155.1, "fwd_pe2": 69.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 122.0, "peg": 1.27, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["物联网解决方案", 24.0], ["物联网综合解决方案", 24.0], ["物联网应用产品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.7, "ret_prev2_year": 1.6, "ret_ytd": -4.3, "ret_pivot": 72.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 17.9, "ret_60": 27.5, "ret_120": -12.3, "ret_250": -17.7, "mdd_250": -49.2, "vol_250": 43.8, "pos_52w": 76.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 63, "hard": 27, "bondness": 45}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 42%,有息负债 7 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.9%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.9%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 0.54 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / 28% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电子Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 51.5 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 23.1% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 35%。", "远望谷:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点。"]}}