{"F": {"ts_code": "002160.SZ", "name": "常铝股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070821", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.05, "pe_ttm": 60.8995, "pb": 1.1113, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 418276.386, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.3, 11.9, 9.7, 11.4, 12.6, 11.4], "rev_series": [43.8, 62.3, 67.8, 68.7, 78.5, 84.7], "np_series": [0.2, 1.0, -3.8, 0.2, 0.6, 0.7], "roe_series": [0.7, 3.4, -11.2, 0.4, 1.8, 1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 89.7, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": -7.4, "fcf_ttm": -9.0, "fcf_yield": -21.4, "ocf_yield": -17.7, "gm_median": 11.4, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 23.3, "fix_assets": 23.1, "goodwill_ratio": 5.3, "pb_calc": 1.11, "capex_dep": 1.24, "interest_debt": 40.2, "debt_ebitda": 10.9, "debt_ratio": 61.7, "debt_mv": 96.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 7.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 11.9, "np_yoy": -3.3, "np_vol": 298.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["铝箔制品", 32.0], ["铝制品", 32.0], ["医疗洁净", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.8, "ret_prev2_year": -11.2, "ret_ytd": -22.1, "ret_pivot": 31.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.1, "ret_60": -2.9, "ret_120": -27.5, "ret_250": -10.8, "mdd_250": -52.3, "vol_250": 55.1, "pos_52w": 55.9}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 70, "hard": 37, "bondness": 27}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 60.9 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 10.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 11.4%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -21.4%(经营现金流/市值 -17.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 1.24 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.9 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -3% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "常铝股份:PE 比行业中位高 40.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点。"]}}