{"F": {"ts_code": "002159.SZ", "name": "三特索道", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "自然景区", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070817", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.04, "pe_ttm": 19.1941, "pb": 1.7029, "dv_ttm": 1.9943, "total_mv": 248931.0252, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.1, 45.6, 29.1, 62.6, 60.3, 62.4], "rev_series": [4.1, 4.3, 2.6, 7.2, 6.9, 6.4], "np_series": [0.3, -1.7, -0.8, 1.3, 1.4, 1.4], "roe_series": [2.3, -13.0, -6.6, 10.7, 10.8, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.3, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 6.7, "ocf_yield": 8.8, "gm_median": 60.3, "gm_std": 13.1, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -10.0, "npm_median": 19.6, "roe_median": 10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.2, "fix_assets": 8.4, "goodwill_ratio": 4.7, "pb_calc": 1.7, "capex_dep": 0.91, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 20.6, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 35.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -1.6, "np_yoy": -20.2, "np_vol": 331.5, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 14.5, "fwd_pe2": 12.4, "fwd_g1": 33.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 0.91, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["索道营运收入", 27.0], ["索道营运", 27.0], ["景区门票", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.2, "ret_prev2_year": 3.9, "ret_ytd": -6.7, "ret_pivot": 13.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.9, "ret_60": 4.1, "ret_120": -29.9, "ret_250": -9.8, "mdd_250": -39.8, "vol_250": 35.4, "pos_52w": 69.0}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 61, "hard": 71, "bondness": 24}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 19 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 21%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 8.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 60.3%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.7%(经营现金流/市值 8.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 60.3%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.91 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.2 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 4% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "三特索道:PE 比行业中位低 47.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 27.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.4个百分点。"]}}