{"F": {"ts_code": "002157.SZ", "name": "正邦科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "生猪养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070817", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.22, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.9353, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2978552.3572, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.3, -25.2, -27.5, -14.3, 14.8, 8.0], "rev_series": [491.7, 476.7, 144.2, 69.9, 88.7, 147.9], "np_series": [57.4, -188.2, -133.9, 85.3, 2.2, -5.5], "roe_series": [35.2, -148.8, null, 1345.8, 2.0, -4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 156.8, "np_ttm": -14.8, "ocf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_ttm": -9.2, "fcf_yield": -3.1, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": -14.3, "gm_std": 17.3, "gm_stab": 2.21, "gm_chg_2022": -49.9, "npm_median": -5.1, "roe_median": -1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.2, "fix_assets": 110.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.94, "capex_dep": 1.43, "interest_debt": 19.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 53.5, "debt_mv": 6.4, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 0.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 12.9, "np_yoy": -465.2, "np_vol": 223.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 322.0, "fwd_pe2": 46.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 600.0, "peg": 0.54, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["猪业", 21.0], ["养殖-猪业", 21.0], ["全价料", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.0, "ret_prev2_year": 9.0, "ret_ytd": -0.6, "ret_pivot": 23.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.0, "ret_60": 5.6, "ret_120": -3.6, "ret_250": 9.5, "mdd_250": -25.7, "vol_250": 34.3, "pos_52w": 86.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 93, "bondness": 22}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -14.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -49.9 个百分点;资产负债率 54%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -14.3%,稳定度 221%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -14.3%,稳定度 221%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -49.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 1.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 6% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "正邦科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 25.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.0个百分点。"]}}