{"F": {"ts_code": "002156.SZ", "name": "通富微电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "集成电路封测", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 56.87, "pe_ttm": 34.193, "pb": 5.1243, "dv_ttm": 0.1424, "total_mv": 8630573.5703, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.5, 17.2, 13.9, 11.7, 14.8, 14.6], "rev_series": [107.7, 158.1, 214.3, 222.7, 238.8, 279.2], "np_series": [3.4, 9.6, 5.0, 1.7, 6.8, 12.2], "roe_series": [4.3, 9.6, 4.1, 1.2, 4.7, 8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 309.2, "np_ttm": 25.2, "ocf_ttm": 74.2, "fcf_ttm": -9.4, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 8.6, "gm_median": 14.6, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.0, "fix_assets": 288.8, "goodwill_ratio": 2.1, "pb_calc": 5.12, "capex_dep": 2.09, "interest_debt": 209.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 64.1, "debt_mv": 24.2, "payout": 10.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.2, "np_cagr3": 34.4, "rev_yoy": 23.0, "np_yoy": 316.8, "np_vol": 138.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 46.9, "fwd_pe2": 40.7, "fwd_g1": -27.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 3.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["集成电路封装测试", 48.0], ["模具及材料销售等", 1.0], ["模具及材料收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.9, "ret_prev2_year": 28.0, "ret_ytd": 51.2, "ret_pivot": 214.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.1, "ret_60": -5.4, "ret_120": 24.2, "ret_250": 90.0, "mdd_250": -34.8, "vol_250": 68.7, "pos_52w": 72.3}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 44, "hard": 90, "bondness": 25}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 56%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 56%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 8.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 56%,资本开支/折旧 2.09 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.2 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 90%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -5% / 24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "通富微电:PE 比行业中位低 47.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 20.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 44.6个百分点。"]}}