{"F": {"ts_code": "002155.SZ", "name": "湖南黄金", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "贵金属", "sw3": "黄金", "ind": "贵金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.78, "pe_ttm": 23.3834, "pb": 4.8635, "dv_ttm": 1.1202, "total_mv": 4184780.1814, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.6, 7.3, 7.6, 7.1, 7.9, 6.1], "rev_series": [150.1, 198.5, 210.4, 233.0, 278.4, 501.8], "np_series": [2.3, 3.6, 4.4, 4.9, 8.5, 14.9], "roe_series": [4.5, 6.9, 7.7, 8.1, 12.9, 19.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 537.7, "np_ttm": 17.9, "ocf_ttm": 8.9, "fcf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 7.3, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 2.1, "roe_median": 8.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 37.0, "fix_assets": 36.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 4.86, "capex_dep": 1.36, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 12.4, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 31.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 33.6, "np_cagr3": 50.4, "rev_yoy": 12.6, "np_yoy": 46.0, "np_vol": 27.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 19.2, "fwd_pe2": 17.0, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["黄金", 94.0], ["精锑", 2.0], ["氧化锑", 1.0], ["含量锑", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 78.9, "ret_prev2_year": 45.4, "ret_ytd": 28.8, "ret_pivot": 131.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.9, "ret_60": 14.8, "ret_120": -18.1, "ret_250": 28.4, "mdd_250": -49.6, "vol_250": 60.2, "pos_52w": 65.0}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 70, "hard": 59, "bondness": 18}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 37 亿,占总资产 37%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:黄金 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.2%,股息率 1.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 79%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 37%)和定价权(商品价格)。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 1.36 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.4 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 28%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 15% / -18%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贵金属」11 家中位:PE 30.8 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 13.3% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 32%。", "湖南黄金:PE 比行业中位低 7.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.3个百分点。"]}}