{"F": {"ts_code": "002154.SZ", "name": "报喜鸟", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.1, "pe_ttm": 13.7276, "pb": 1.2777, "dv_ttm": 4.1463, "total_mv": 598326.817, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [63.4, 63.9, 62.7, 64.7, 65.0, 64.5], "rev_series": [37.9, 44.5, 43.1, 52.5, 51.5, 51.7], "np_series": [3.7, 4.6, 4.6, 7.0, 4.9, 3.4], "roe_series": [12.1, 12.6, 11.3, 16.9, 11.4, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 54.1, "np_ttm": 4.4, "ocf_ttm": 8.5, "fcf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_yield": 9.2, "ocf_yield": 14.2, "gm_median": 64.5, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.6, "fix_assets": 8.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 1.28, "capex_dep": 3.76, "interest_debt": 7.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 31.5, "debt_mv": 13.2, "payout": 52.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.2, "np_cagr3": -9.3, "rev_yoy": 10.0, "np_yoy": 47.7, "np_vol": 32.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 64.0, "earn_yield": 7.3, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 12.7, "fwd_pe2": 11.1, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 0.91, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["T恤", 17.0], ["裤子", 16.0], ["上衣", 15.0], ["衬衫", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.2, "ret_prev2_year": -18.5, "ret_ytd": 11.4, "ret_pivot": 32.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.0, "ret_60": 7.6, "ret_120": 10.5, "ret_250": 10.2, "mdd_250": -26.6, "vol_250": 34.6, "pos_52w": 90.1}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 74, "hard": 20, "bondness": 60}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 48%,PE TTM 13.7 倍 但前瞻 PE 12.7 倍,PEG 0.91。", "自由现金流 5.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 14%(15 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 64.5%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.2%(经营现金流/市值 14.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 64.5%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 3.76 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.7 倍 粗算,约 64%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 8% / 10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "报喜鸟:PE 比行业中位低 23.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点。"]}}