{"F": {"ts_code": "002153.SZ", "name": "石基信息", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070813", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.04, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.3424, "dv_ttm": 0.1244, "total_mv": 2194271.8152, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.8, 38.6, 36.2, 37.7, 34.9, 36.2], "rev_series": [33.2, 32.1, 26.0, 27.5, 29.5, 27.9], "np_series": [-0.7, -4.8, -7.8, -1.0, -2.0, -1.7], "roe_series": [-0.8, -5.8, -10.1, -1.4, -2.8, -2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.1, "np_ttm": -1.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": -3.2, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 36.2, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": -5.0, "roe_median": -2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.5, "fix_assets": 5.5, "goodwill_ratio": 14.3, "pb_calc": 3.34, "capex_dep": 9.65, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 17.6, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.6, "np_yoy": -23.4, "np_vol": 246.1, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 402.0, "fwd_pe2": 182.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 120.0, "peg": 3.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["酒店信息管理系统业务", 20.0], ["自有智能商用设备", 8.0], ["智能设备", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 52.0, "ret_prev2_year": -26.7, "ret_ytd": -25.7, "ret_pivot": 39.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": 3.9, "ret_120": -25.8, "ret_250": -28.5, "mdd_250": -56.4, "vol_250": 51.0, "pos_52w": 49.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 56, "hard": 10, "bondness": 19}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 18%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.2%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.2%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 9.65 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 4% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "石基信息:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点。"]}}