{"F": {"ts_code": "002152.SZ", "name": "广电运通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070813", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.85, "pe_ttm": 29.8972, "pb": 1.9769, "dv_ttm": 3.7563, "total_mv": 2446132.1565, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.9, 39.1, 38.2, 35.9, 31.1, 28.5], "rev_series": [64.1, 67.8, 75.3, 90.4, 108.7, 120.6], "np_series": [7.0, 8.2, 8.3, 9.8, 9.2, 8.6], "roe_series": [7.4, 7.9, 7.3, 8.3, 7.5, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 119.0, "np_ttm": 8.2, "ocf_ttm": 15.7, "fcf_ttm": 12.4, "fcf_yield": 5.1, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 35.9, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 14.1, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.5, "fix_assets": 20.5, "goodwill_ratio": 5.8, "pb_calc": 1.98, "capex_dep": 2.07, "interest_debt": 36.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 44.1, "debt_mv": 15.1, "payout": 54.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.0, "np_cagr3": 1.3, "rev_yoy": -2.9, "np_yoy": -9.2, "np_vol": 10.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 25.3, "fwd_pe2": 21.2, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 1.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智能设备", 22.0], ["运维服务及其他", 21.0], ["软件开发及服务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.2, "ret_prev2_year": -3.5, "ret_ytd": -26.7, "ret_pivot": 9.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.5, "ret_60": 3.0, "ret_120": -22.6, "ret_250": -32.0, "mdd_250": -37.3, "vol_250": 32.7, "pos_52w": 67.5}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 55, "hard": 12, "bondness": 53}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 54%、股息率 3.8%、营收 3 年复合 17.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.9%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.1%(经营现金流/市值 6.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.9%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 2.07 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.9 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 3% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "广电运通:PE 比行业中位低 21.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点。"]}}