{"F": {"ts_code": "002149.SZ", "name": "西部材料", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070810", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.0, "pe_ttm": 190.807, "pb": 2.5121, "dv_ttm": 0.5882, "total_mv": 1659928.62, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.2, 23.0, 22.2, 21.9, 20.6, 17.6], "rev_series": [20.3, 23.9, 29.4, 32.3, 29.5, 32.3], "np_series": [0.8, 1.3, 1.8, 2.0, 1.6, 1.0], "roe_series": [3.6, 5.1, 6.8, 6.9, 5.4, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.6, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 21.9, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 7.3, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 15.4, "fix_assets": 19.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.51, "capex_dep": 1.31, "interest_debt": 17.8, "debt_ebitda": 7.1, "debt_ratio": 42.5, "debt_mv": 10.7, "payout": 92.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.2, "np_cagr3": -17.6, "rev_yoy": -11.4, "np_yoy": -26.8, "np_vol": 37.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["钛制品", 22.0], ["钛产品", 22.0], ["其他金属产品", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 162.5, "ret_prev2_year": 14.8, "ret_ytd": -25.1, "ret_pivot": 179.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.4, "ret_60": -45.0, "ret_120": -21.7, "ret_250": 76.3, "mdd_250": -58.5, "vol_250": 71.5, "pos_52w": 45.1}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 70, "hard": 25, "bondness": 68}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 190.8 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 21.9%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 1.31 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 190.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 76%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -45% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "西部材料:PE 比行业中位高 153.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点。"]}}