{"F": {"ts_code": "002145.SZ", "name": "钛能化学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "钛白粉", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070803", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.28, "pe_ttm": 31.4919, "pb": 1.2316, "dv_ttm": 0.9036, "total_mv": 1629255.7016, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.8, 36.1, 20.4, 17.8, 17.4, 13.7], "rev_series": [37.2, 53.7, 54.8, 49.5, 68.7, 77.8], "np_series": [4.8, 12.2, 6.4, 4.2, 5.7, 3.6], "roe_series": [10.4, 19.0, 9.3, 4.5, 4.7, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 85.7, "np_ttm": 5.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": -3.0, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 17.8, "gm_std": 7.8, "gm_stab": 0.56, "gm_chg_2022": -6.4, "npm_median": 8.5, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.3, "fix_assets": 69.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.5, "pb_calc": 1.23, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 40.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 37.8, "debt_mv": 24.9, "payout": 20.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.4, "np_cagr3": -17.8, "rev_yoy": 20.9, "np_yoy": 61.9, "np_vol": 76.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钛白粉", 40.0], ["金红石型钛白粉", 40.0], ["其他业务", 6.0], ["黄磷", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.2, "ret_prev2_year": -4.3, "ret_ytd": -11.9, "ret_pivot": 29.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.3, "ret_60": 3.1, "ret_120": -21.0, "ret_250": -9.9, "mdd_250": -31.4, "vol_250": 42.2, "pos_52w": 70.7}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 32, "hard": 52, "bondness": 30}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 56%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 56%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.5 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 3% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "钛能化学:PE 比行业中位低 4.4倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.1个百分点。"]}}