{"F": {"ts_code": "002144.SZ", "name": "宏达高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "其他纺织", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070803", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.17, "pe_ttm": 76.4818, "pb": 0.9201, "dv_ttm": 0.4476, "total_mv": 197443.7125, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.2, 24.4, 27.8, 33.2, 30.8, 33.9], "rev_series": [4.6, 6.0, 5.8, 5.4, 6.2, 4.9], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.8, 0.8, 0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [3.7, 3.6, 4.2, 4.2, 1.4, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.5, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -2.8, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 30.8, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 3.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.9, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 2.1, "pb_calc": 0.92, "capex_dep": 4.02, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 7.8, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.2, "np_cagr3": -18.4, "rev_yoy": -16.7, "np_yoy": -42.6, "np_vol": 39.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车内饰面料", 29.0], ["交运面料", 29.0], ["服饰面料", 23.0], ["医疗器械", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.6, "ret_prev2_year": -9.3, "ret_ytd": -11.6, "ret_pivot": 33.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.5, "ret_60": 1.4, "ret_120": -29.3, "ret_250": -15.3, "mdd_250": -45.6, "vol_250": 36.8, "pos_52w": 65.7}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 52, "hard": 21, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 76.5 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 30.8%、固定资产占比 13%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.8%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 4.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 76.5 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 1% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "宏达高科:PE 比行业中位高 53.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.2个百分点。"]}}