{"F": {"ts_code": "002139.SZ", "name": "拓邦股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070629", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.33, "pe_ttm": 71.5447, "pb": 1.6649, "dv_ttm": 0.7394, "total_mv": 1163296.9617, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.4, 21.3, 20.1, 22.3, 23.0, 21.5], "rev_series": [55.6, 77.7, 88.8, 89.9, 105.0, 110.8], "np_series": [5.3, 5.6, 5.8, 5.2, 6.7, 3.6], "roe_series": [17.9, 13.3, 10.8, 8.6, 10.4, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 113.9, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": -3.9, "fcf_yield": -3.4, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 21.5, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.9, "fix_assets": 37.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.66, "capex_dep": 2.46, "interest_debt": 24.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 53.6, "debt_mv": 21.1, "payout": 14.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.7, "np_cagr3": -14.5, "rev_yoy": 5.6, "np_yoy": -61.0, "np_vol": 25.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 23.1, "fwd_pe2": 17.9, "fwd_g1": 209.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 0.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["智能控制业务", 24.0], ["智能控制业务：工具和家电", 18.0], ["工具和家电", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.8, "ret_prev2_year": 40.9, "ret_ytd": -31.9, "ret_pivot": 2.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.9, "ret_60": -1.9, "ret_120": -26.7, "ret_250": -38.0, "mdd_250": -43.8, "vol_250": 30.2, "pos_52w": 57.6}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 49, "hard": 40, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 71.5 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.5%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 2.46 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 71.5 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -2% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "拓邦股份:PE 比行业中位高 25.0倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}