{"F": {"ts_code": "002134.SZ", "name": "天津普林", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070516", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.27, "pe_ttm": 130.1465, "pb": 9.7398, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 551890.2317, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.0, 15.4, 15.7, 22.2, 16.8, 14.5], "rev_series": [4.6, 7.0, 5.8, 6.5, 11.3, 13.8], "np_series": [0.1, 0.3, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.0], "roe_series": [1.6, 6.5, 3.7, 5.9, 7.3, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.6, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 15.7, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 0.7, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.1, "fix_assets": 11.8, "goodwill_ratio": 5.0, "pb_calc": 9.74, "capex_dep": 2.15, "interest_debt": 6.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 66.9, "debt_mv": 12.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 33.4, "np_cagr3": -33.3, "rev_yoy": 43.5, "np_yoy": 560.1, "np_vol": 139.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["印制电路板", 44.0], ["其他业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.5, "ret_prev2_year": 75.0, "ret_ytd": -16.9, "ret_pivot": 185.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.2, "ret_60": -21.7, "ret_120": 4.7, "ret_250": -4.8, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 51.3, "pos_52w": 67.9}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 45, "hard": 72, "bondness": 10}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 45%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 2.15 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 130.1 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -22% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "天津普林:PE 比行业中位高 64.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.2个百分点。"]}}