{"F": {"ts_code": "002132.SZ", "name": "恒星科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070427", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.19, "pe_ttm": 72.0545, "pb": 1.6379, "dv_ttm": 1.1396, "total_mv": 587247.2293, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.3, 13.6, 14.0, 10.2, 9.7, 8.9], "rev_series": [28.3, 34.0, 44.2, 45.8, 50.9, 51.4], "np_series": [1.2, 1.4, 1.9, 0.5, 0.1, 0.2], "roe_series": [4.4, 4.5, 5.2, 1.5, 0.4, 0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 54.2, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_yield": 5.4, "ocf_yield": 5.7, "gm_median": 10.2, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": 0.7, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.8, "fix_assets": 44.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.64, "capex_dep": 0.05, "interest_debt": 25.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 54.2, "debt_mv": 42.9, "payout": 750.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.2, "np_cagr3": -53.6, "rev_yoy": 11.4, "np_yoy": 293.4, "np_vol": 50.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["化学产品", 13.0], ["化学", 13.0], ["预应力钢绞线", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.6, "ret_prev2_year": -11.4, "ret_ytd": 19.7, "ret_pivot": 101.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": -20.8, "ret_120": 6.3, "ret_250": 9.7, "mdd_250": -39.8, "vol_250": 50.0, "pos_52w": 67.6}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 41, "hard": 91, "bondness": 70}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 57%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.2%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.2%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 0.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 72.1 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -21% / 6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "恒星科技:PE 比行业中位高 21.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 36.0个百分点。"]}}