{"F": {"ts_code": "002130.SZ", "name": "沃尔核材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "其他电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电子Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070420", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.17, "pe_ttm": 20.856, "pb": 2.6146, "dv_ttm": 0.9531, "total_mv": 2403606.6658, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.3, 32.5, 31.5, 32.6, 31.7, 31.7], "rev_series": [40.9, 54.1, 53.4, 57.2, 69.3, 84.5], "np_series": [4.0, 5.5, 6.1, 7.0, 8.5, 11.4], "roe_series": [12.9, 15.6, 15.1, 15.1, 16.2, 19.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 91.6, "np_ttm": 11.5, "ocf_ttm": 12.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 5.3, "gm_median": 31.7, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -7.8, "npm_median": 13.2, "roe_median": 15.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.9, "fix_assets": 40.4, "goodwill_ratio": 4.5, "pb_calc": 2.61, "capex_dep": 4.25, "interest_debt": 23.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 39.0, "debt_mv": 9.7, "payout": 20.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.5, "np_cagr3": 23.0, "rev_yoy": 17.9, "np_yoy": 1.5, "np_vol": 11.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 15.2, "fwd_pe2": 11.5, "fwd_g1": 37.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["通信线缆", 15.0], ["电子材料", 14.0], ["新能源汽车产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.8, "ret_prev2_year": 252.5, "ret_ytd": -34.4, "ret_pivot": 59.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.3, "ret_60": -7.2, "ret_120": -32.4, "ret_250": -32.6, "mdd_250": -55.2, "vol_250": 50.6, "pos_52w": 50.5}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 54, "hard": 41, "bondness": 20}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.9 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.7%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.7%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.7%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 4.25 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.9 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -7% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电子Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 51.5 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 23.1% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 35%。", "沃尔核材:PE 比行业中位低 30.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.2个百分点。"]}}