{"F": {"ts_code": "002129.SZ", "name": "TCL中环", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "硅料硅片", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070420", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.14, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.01, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3695396.9646, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.9, 21.7, 17.8, 20.2, -9.1, -6.4], "rev_series": [190.6, 411.0, 670.1, 591.5, 284.2, 290.5], "np_series": [10.9, 40.3, 68.2, 34.2, -98.2, -92.6], "roe_series": [6.5, 15.8, 19.7, 8.6, -27.1, -35.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 299.7, "np_ttm": -82.3, "ocf_ttm": 9.4, "fcf_ttm": -37.6, "fcf_yield": -10.2, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 17.8, "gm_std": 13.6, "gm_stab": 0.23, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 8.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.6, "fix_assets": 638.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 2.01, "capex_dep": 0.59, "interest_debt": 561.8, "debt_ebitda": 21.4, "debt_ratio": 69.1, "debt_mv": 152.0, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -24.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.8, "np_yoy": 24.5, "np_vol": 213.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 19.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["光伏组件", 18.0], ["光伏硅片", 17.0], ["半导体材料", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.4, "ret_prev2_year": -42.3, "ret_ytd": 6.7, "ret_pivot": 21.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.7, "ret_60": -9.8, "ret_120": -10.0, "ret_250": 7.2, "mdd_250": -30.5, "vol_250": 51.5, "pos_52w": 76.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 24, "hard": 91, "bondness": 46}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 57%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 21.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 23%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 23%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 0.59 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -10% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "TCL中环:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 34.0个百分点。"]}}