{"F": {"ts_code": "002128.SZ", "name": "电投能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "动力煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070418", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.25, "pe_ttm": 12.7673, "pb": 1.7305, "dv_ttm": 3.1865, "total_mv": 9144945.5175, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.2, 34.0, 31.4, 31.8, 34.1, 36.8], "rev_series": [200.7, 246.5, 267.9, 268.5, 298.6, 301.1], "np_series": [20.7, 35.6, 39.9, 45.6, 53.4, 54.2], "roe_series": [12.3, 18.7, 18.2, 16.8, 16.3, 14.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 395.7, "np_ttm": 79.3, "ocf_ttm": 137.6, "fcf_ttm": 71.9, "fcf_yield": 7.9, "ocf_yield": 15.0, "gm_median": 34.0, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 19.4, "roe_median": 16.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 58.9, "fix_assets": 526.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.73, "capex_dep": 1.98, "interest_debt": 191.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 33.8, "debt_mv": 20.9, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.0, "np_cagr3": 10.8, "rev_yoy": 20.0, "np_yoy": 49.1, "np_vol": 24.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 61.0, "earn_yield": 7.8, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 8.5, "fwd_pe2": 7.9, "fwd_g1": 50.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 1.06, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["铝业产品", 21.0], ["电解铝", 21.0], ["煤炭产品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 52.2, "ret_prev2_year": 52.8, "ret_ytd": 9.9, "ret_pivot": 109.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.8, "ret_60": 2.5, "ret_120": -10.3, "ret_250": 54.6, "mdd_250": -31.2, "vol_250": 42.9, "pos_52w": 87.4}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 70, "hard": 94, "bondness": 51}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 526 亿,占总资产 59%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:动力煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 7.9%,股息率 3.2%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 61%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 59%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.9%(经营现金流/市值 15.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.0%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 59%,资本开支/折旧 1.98 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.8 倍 粗算,约 61%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 55%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 2% / -10%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "电投能源:PE 比行业中位低 12.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.4个百分点。"]}}