{"F": {"ts_code": "002124.SZ", "name": "天邦食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "生猪养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070403", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.42, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.5313, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 537707.9796, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.2, -17.8, 14.3, -8.9, 16.5, 8.6], "rev_series": [107.6, 105.1, 95.7, 102.3, 96.4, 86.9], "np_series": [32.4, -44.6, 4.9, -28.8, 14.6, -13.1], "roe_series": [55.6, -72.9, 13.3, -94.0, 49.5, -43.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 76.5, "np_ttm": -32.0, "ocf_ttm": 6.9, "fcf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_yield": 8.8, "ocf_yield": 12.9, "gm_median": 8.6, "gm_std": 13.5, "gm_stab": -0.57, "gm_chg_2022": -27.9, "npm_median": -15.2, "roe_median": -43.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 64.4, "fix_assets": 66.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.53, "capex_dep": 0.24, "interest_debt": 48.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 91.2, "debt_mv": 90.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -3.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -22.1, "np_yoy": -538.3, "np_vol": 302.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["生猪销售", 24.0], ["生猪养殖", 24.0], ["食品加工", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.8, "ret_prev2_year": -23.1, "ret_ytd": -11.7, "ret_pivot": 15.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.0, "ret_60": 2.1, "ret_120": -6.6, "ret_250": -20.1, "mdd_250": -36.1, "vol_250": 45.2, "pos_52w": 75.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 8, "hard": 100, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 64%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -27.9 个百分点;资产负债率 91%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 64%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%,稳定度 -57%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.8%(经营现金流/市值 12.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%,稳定度 -57%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -27.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 64%,资本开支/折旧 0.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 2% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "天邦食品:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.2个百分点。"]}}