{"F": {"ts_code": "002120.SZ", "name": "韵达股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "快递", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070306", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.87, "pe_ttm": 12.1367, "pb": 0.942, "dv_ttm": 2.8972, "total_mv": 1991751.2931, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.5, 9.1, 9.1, 9.6, 9.5, 7.5], "rev_series": [335.0, 417.3, 474.3, 449.8, 485.4, 514.7], "np_series": [14.0, 14.8, 14.8, 16.3, 19.1, 11.7], "roe_series": [10.1, 9.8, 9.1, 9.0, 9.7, 5.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 530.8, "np_ttm": 16.4, "ocf_ttm": 43.0, "fcf_ttm": 18.9, "fcf_yield": 9.5, "ocf_yield": 21.6, "gm_median": 9.1, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 9.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.6, "fix_assets": 150.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.93, "capex_dep": 1.82, "interest_debt": 87.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 41.9, "debt_mv": 43.7, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.8, "np_cagr3": -7.6, "rev_yoy": 6.5, "np_yoy": 88.8, "np_vol": 19.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 59.0, "earn_yield": 8.2, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 9.4, "fwd_pe2": 8.2, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 0.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["派送服务收入", 20.0], ["派费收入", 20.0], ["中转费收入", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.1, "ret_prev2_year": 3.3, "ret_ytd": 5.0, "ret_pivot": -4.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.4, "ret_60": 8.7, "ret_120": 1.0, "ret_250": -18.3, "mdd_250": -27.1, "vol_250": 26.2, "pos_52w": 81.4}, "S": {"duration": 26, "pricing": 44, "hard": 65, "bondness": 51}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 89%,PE TTM 12.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 9.4 倍,PEG 0.67。", "自由现金流 18.9 亿(正),次年预期增速 14%(10 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.1%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.5%(经营现金流/市值 21.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 1.82 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.1 倍 粗算,约 59%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 9% / 1%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "韵达股份:PE 比行业中位低 9.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.0个百分点。"]}}