{"F": {"ts_code": "002117.SZ", "name": "东港股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "印刷", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070302", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.28, "pe_ttm": 26.4007, "pb": 3.1574, "dv_ttm": 3.6232, "total_mv": 433640.988, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.5, 38.3, 35.7, 36.0, 32.4, 33.4], "rev_series": [11.8, 12.0, 10.6, 12.0, 11.8, 11.9], "np_series": [1.6, 1.9, 1.3, 1.6, 1.6, 1.4], "roe_series": [10.1, 11.8, 8.7, 10.5, 10.6, 10.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.8, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 5.9, "gm_median": 35.7, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 13.4, "roe_median": 10.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.8, "fix_assets": 6.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 3.16, "capex_dep": 1.28, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 27.2, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 87.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.6, "np_cagr3": 2.3, "rev_yoy": -1.5, "np_yoy": 25.6, "np_vol": 17.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 26.7, "fwd_pe2": 24.4, "fwd_g1": -1.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 2.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["印刷类产品", 26.0], ["印刷产品", 26.0], ["覆合类产品", 19.0], ["智能卡和无线射频产品", 19.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.9, "ret_prev2_year": 44.5, "ret_ytd": -38.7, "ret_pivot": 45.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.2, "ret_60": -7.0, "ret_120": -22.8, "ret_250": -38.4, "mdd_250": -46.7, "vol_250": 33.3, "pos_52w": 59.4}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 57, "hard": 57, "bondness": 69}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 7 亿,占总资产 36%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 35.7%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 4.4%,股息率 3.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 81%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 36%)和定价权(毛利率 35.7% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.7%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 1.28 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.4 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -7% / -23%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "东港股份:PE 比行业中位低 12.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点。"]}}