{"F": {"ts_code": "002115.SZ", "name": "三维通信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信服务", "sw3": "通信工程及服务", "ind": "通信服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.75, "pe_ttm": 250.181, "pb": 4.1743, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 865415.0975, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.3, 4.5, 5.2, 4.7, 4.8, 4.3], "rev_series": [87.4, 102.6, 103.0, 124.9, 109.5, 119.5], "np_series": [0.2, -7.0, 1.4, 0.6, -2.7, -0.1], "roe_series": [0.7, -29.6, 5.8, 2.3, -12.2, -0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 196.1, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_ttm": -3.0, "fcf_yield": -3.4, "ocf_yield": -2.4, "gm_median": 4.7, "gm_std": 0.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": -0.0, "roe_median": -0.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.2, "fix_assets": 9.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 4.17, "capex_dep": 0.86, "interest_debt": 10.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 54.5, "debt_mv": 12.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 5.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 173.8, "np_yoy": 1825.7, "np_vol": 1619.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["互联网营销服务", 49.0], ["互联网营销业务", 49.0], ["网络优化覆盖设备及解决方案", 1.0], ["网优覆盖业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 91.6, "ret_prev2_year": -7.9, "ret_ytd": -15.6, "ret_pivot": 134.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.9, "ret_60": -5.1, "ret_120": -16.4, "ret_250": 19.7, "mdd_250": -50.1, "vol_250": 65.7, "pos_52w": 54.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 32, "bondness": 25}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 250 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 54%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 4.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.4%(经营现金流/市值 -2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.86 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 250.2 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -5% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信服务」38 家中位:PE 82.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 20.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 34%。", "三维通信:PE 比行业中位高 168.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点。"]}}