{"F": {"ts_code": "002112.SZ", "name": "三变科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.52, "pe_ttm": 581.6119, "pb": 5.2485, "dv_ttm": 0.0644, "total_mv": 456491.7776, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.1, 16.4, 17.5, 19.8, 18.3, 15.6], "rev_series": [10.1, 10.3, 13.1, 17.2, 21.8, 18.7], "np_series": [0.3, 0.2, 0.4, 0.9, 1.2, 0.1], "roe_series": [8.2, 4.6, 9.8, 18.0, 20.2, 1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.1, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 17.5, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.3, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.25, "capex_dep": 1.21, "interest_debt": 5.8, "debt_ebitda": 8.7, "debt_ratio": 66.4, "debt_mv": 12.7, "payout": 15.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 12.8, "np_cagr3": -31.1, "rev_yoy": 44.6, "np_yoy": -18.7, "np_vol": 84.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["油浸式变压器", 36.0], ["油浸变压器", 36.0], ["组合式变压器", 11.0], ["组合变压器", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.2, "ret_prev2_year": 7.2, "ret_ytd": 17.1, "ret_pivot": 71.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.5, "ret_60": -5.4, "ret_120": -38.5, "ret_250": 10.2, "mdd_250": -52.2, "vol_250": 61.3, "pos_52w": 56.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 13, "bondness": 28}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 581.6 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.21 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 581.6 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -5% / -38%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "三变科技:PE 比行业中位高 538.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点。"]}}