{"F": {"ts_code": "002111.SZ", "name": "威海广泰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.04, "pe_ttm": 26.115, "pb": 1.7475, "dv_ttm": 3.1529, "total_mv": 534139.1444, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.8, 33.8, 33.1, 27.0, 23.4, 24.4], "rev_series": [29.6, 30.8, 23.5, 24.0, 28.9, 33.2], "np_series": [3.8, 0.5, 2.4, 1.3, 0.7, 1.3], "roe_series": [12.5, 1.6, 7.8, 4.1, 2.4, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 36.0, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 8.7, "fcf_ttm": 7.1, "fcf_yield": 13.3, "ocf_yield": 16.2, "gm_median": 27.0, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": 1.3, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.6, "fix_assets": 14.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.69, "capex_dep": 2.41, "interest_debt": 15.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 49.7, "debt_mv": 29.7, "payout": 107.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.3, "np_cagr3": -18.7, "rev_yoy": 19.1, "np_yoy": 90.6, "np_vol": 131.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 18.9, "fwd_pe2": 15.4, "fwd_g1": 38.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.82, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["空港装备", 31.0], ["消防设备", 12.0], ["消防救援装备", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.0, "ret_prev2_year": 24.9, "ret_ytd": -2.3, "ret_pivot": 16.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.7, "ret_60": 10.9, "ret_120": -2.3, "ret_250": -6.1, "mdd_250": -24.8, "vol_250": 30.2, "pos_52w": 88.1}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 51, "hard": 36, "bondness": 72}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 91%,PE TTM 26.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 18.9 倍,PEG 0.82。", "自由现金流 7.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 23%(1 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.3%(经营现金流/市值 16.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 2.41 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.1 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -25%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 11% / -2%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "威海广泰:PE 比行业中位低 47.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点。"]}}